A Rally Off the Bear Market Lows


After the market rejected a rally to $24.5k, Bitcrypto-coin prices have dropped to $18.5k setting the second lowest low of the bear cycle. This has plunged over 11.8% of the supply back into an unrealized loss, allowing us to survey the risk of downside, and the possibility of bottom formation.

A Rally Off the Bear Market Lows

Bitcrypto-coin markets have experienced a powerful rally, bouncing off the second lowest low ($18,649) of the prevailing bear market. Prices peaked at $21,758, but remain firmly within the consolidation range which has now been established for more than three months.

Since mid-August, the market has been trading down from the consolidation rage high, which peaked at around $24.5k. As the market reaches towards the range low this week, we have an opportunity to observe the volume of crypto-coins that flipped from an unrealized profit (at $24.5k) to an unrealized loss through this process. These moments provide valuable insight on to the degree of crypto-coin accumulation, and cost basis concentration within an established consolidation range.

In this edition, we will zoom in on this concept of on-chain cost basis, and changing crypto-coin profitability. We will also analyze a very rare event, where three ~5k BTC whale sized transactions, aged 7y-10y, were spent over recent weeks. These crypto-coins were accumulated back in Dec-2013, realizing over $163M in profit.


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