Bitcrypto-coin prices have now traded below the Realized Price for over a month, with many signals that a deep and complete capitulation has occurred. As a result, numerous signals indicate that genuine bottom formation could be underway.
The Bitcrypto-coin market caught a breath of upwards relief this week, rallying from $18,999, to the upper end of the consolidation range at $21,596. This follows a volatile response across markets early in the week, as US headline CPI inflation hit a forty-year high of 9.1%. There is also a challenging backdrop of growing civil unrest, rising energy prices, and resource scarcity in many nations around the world.
Within this context, the Bitcrypto-coin and wider digital assets market have already experienced one of the heaviest, and fastest downwards repricing events in their history. This process has cleared a great deal of excess leverage from the system, and has driven Bitcrypto-coin prices below the Realized Price (the estimated cost basis of BTC holders).
In this edition, we will study the current Bitcrypto-coin market structure, through the lens of both unrealized (held crypto-coins), and realized (spent crypto-coins) losses by various investor cohorts. The target of this study is to gauge whether a similar degree of seller exhaustion is in play compared to previous bear market cycle lows. These tools can help structure a case, and probabilities for a bear market bottom forming around $20k.
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